10–20% of the AP exam. Key topics: Basic probability rules: complement, addition, multiplication, Conditional probability: P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B), Independence of events, Two-way tables and Venn diagrams for probability calculations, Tree diagrams for multi-stage probability, Discrete random variables: probability distributions, expected value E(X), variance Var(X), Linear transformations of random variables, Combining independent random variables: means add, variances add (not standard deviations), Binomial distribution: BINS conditions, mean, standard deviation, probability calculations, Geometric distribution: mean and probability calculations, Normal distribution: z-scores and probability calculations using tables or calculator.
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